No One Mourns the Mid-Majors: Can Mid-Major Schools Survive Under the House v. NCAA Settlement Agreement, or is College Athletics Destined to Downsize?

Blog Post | 113 KY. L. J. ONLINE | April 25, 2025

No One Mourns the Mid-Majors: Can Mid-Major Schools Survive Under the House v. NCAA Settlement Agreement, or is College Athletics Destined to Downsize?

By: Matthew Givens, Staff Editor, Vol. 113 

For National Collegiate Athletic Association (“NCAA”) stakeholders, the only constant over the past few years has been change. Student-athletes, administrators, and fans have all attempted to conform to the new “normal” of college athletics, which now includes conference realignment, the expansion of the College Football Playoff, and the introduction of Name, Image, and Likeness (“NIL”) deals for students. In conforming to the collegiate athletic landscape, these parties must brace for another oncoming wave of change, which will be introduced following the approval of the House v. NCAA settlement agreement.[1] Looking deeper into this expected change, one could start to worry the House settlement might force schools or their athletic departments to shutter.

As recently as 2021, student-athletes could not be compensated for their participation in college athletics outside of scholarships.[2] Prior to that year, the NCAA enjoyed a makeshift antitrust exemption that allowed its member institutions to avoid paying players.[3] Following a litany of litigation and favorable rulings for student-athletes, however, the NCAA modified its policies to allow players to secure NIL deals while playing college sports.[4] The House settlement effectively takes player compensation a step further, calling for Division I schools to share up to 22% of their athletic revenue with student-athletes, with a cap of $20.5 million per school.[5] The Power 4 conferences have opted into the revenue sharing process and are therefore requiring schools in their leagues to participate.[6]

In a world accustomed to massive NIL deals for college athletes, revenue sharing is the next frontier.[7] Despite being a huge win for college players, revenue sharing is likely to further widen the gap, both talent-wise and financially, between certain conferences and schools. The universities in Power 4 conferences (the SEC, ACC, Big 12, and Big Ten), are expected to continue furthering themselves from those universities in “mid-major” conferences (CUSA, MAC, OVC, SWAC, and more).[8]

With what appears to be an already massive disparity between these groups, the settlement likely leaves many mid-major schools wondering if their athletic departments, or entire institutions for that matter, can survive in this new world. To keep their universities and athletic programs afloat, these schools must find creative ways to follow the House settlement while trying to remain financially and competitively relevant.

Under the House agreement, mid-major universities can opt in or out of revenue sharing.[9] In making the decision, the schools will obviously signal to current and future student-athletes their process for student-athlete compensation.  One non-Power 4 conference, the American Athletic Conference, is mandating revenue sharing for its schools, but as of now, no other mid-major conferences have followed suit.[10] Other features also stem from the House settlement, such as back pay, roster limits, and greater NIL attention, but the ultimate outcome is the elimination of amateurism in college athletics, and a new model that pays athletes to play.[11]

The new pay-to-play system magnifies the competitive and financial distance between the large, mostly flagship programs in the Power 4 conferences and the smaller, regionally based universities elsewhere. While it is no surprise that Southeastern Conference (“SEC”) schools, such as the University of Kentucky, have long had an advantage over schools like Western Kentucky University (a Conference USA participant) when it comes to raking in revenue and recruits, the new revenue sharing only seems to strengthen that advantage. So, what do the smaller schools do?

They could opt out of revenue sharing to save their bottom line, but this may sour university-athlete relations and lose a recruiting edge. They could look to pass off revenue sharing costs to their students and fans, like the University of Arkansas and the University of Tennessee.[12] Yet, raising prices for consumers at an institution that already likely draws limited amounts of fans might hurt attendance and interest. They could seek greater funding from state legislatures, but in the process may inadvertently frustrate other schools that also deserve financial assistance. The athletic departments could look to donors for a boost, but they may not be easy to come by, especially considering they may be suffering donor fatigue from already supporting the university.[13] They could even attempt to play more “guarantee games” against Power 4 teams, during which they secure a large payday in exchange for a lopsided matchup.[14] But even these may be ending soon, as larger schools look to spend this money on their athletes instead.[15]

In all, it is unclear what non-Power 4 colleges should do. While many creative minds in athletic departments can likely find better solutions than a Kentucky law student can, there is a chance these ideas do not work. If so, the talent level at the school or conference could decrease drastically, pushing away current and future fans, along with their money. In turn, with little fan interest resulting in little funding, this could mean the elimination of athletic programs, conferences, or even entire universities. So, what do the smaller schools do? This is what many within those schools are currently wondering.[16]

To be clear, this blog is not meant to complain about compensating players. Student-athletes have been major revenue generators for decades and have never received anything remotely close to their market value in exchange until now. Their reward should be celebrated. In the same breath, though, it can be acknowledged that compensating players could threaten the competitive and financial viability of several universities and the conferences they are members of.

The ever-widening gap between flagship schools and their smaller counterparts is reminiscent of the Oakland Athletics versus the New York Yankees in the movie “Moneyball.”[17] While playing the role of the small-market Athletics’ General Manager, Brad Pitt tells a baseball scout, who is being partially replaced by statistical modeling, that he must “adapt or die.”[18] In order to adapt to avoid death, non-Power 4 schools must prepare for the House v. NCAA settlement agreement by creatively answering one question: how do we make this work?

[1] Lauren Merola, Ralph D. Russo & Justin Williams, What’s at Stake with the House v. NCAA Settlement? Goodbye Amateurism, Hello Revenue Sharing, The Athletic (April 7, 2025), https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6256000/2025/04/07/house-v-ncaa-settlement-revenue-sharing-explained/?onboarded=true.

[2] David Broughton, Timeline: The Road to Name, Image, Likeness, Sports Bus. J. (Nov. 27, 2023), https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2023/11/27/college-sports-timeline/.

[3] See Nat Malkus, The NCAA Wants an Antitrust Exemption. Should They Get One?, Am. Enter. Inst. (Feb. 26, 2025), https://www.aei.org/education/the-ncaa-wants-an-antitrust-exemption-should-they-get-one/.

[4] Michelle Brutlag Hosick, NCAA Adopts Interim Name, Image, and Likeness Policy, NCAA (June 30, 2021, 4:20 PM), https://www.ncaa.org/news/2021/6/30/ncaa-adopts-interim-name-image-and-likeness-policy.aspx.

[5] King Jemison, House v. NCAA Settlement Could Dramatically Reshape College Sports. Here’s What to Know, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Apr. 5, 2025, 4:00 AM), https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/college/2025/04/05/house-ncaa-settlement-nil-college-sports-march-madness-final-four/stories/202504060052#:~:text=The%20settlement%20won't%20apply,governed%20by%20the%20previous%20structure.

[6] Id.

[7] See Merola, Russo & Williams, supra note 1.

[8] David Hale, State of the Group of 5: The Challenges Facing Smaller Conferences, ESPN (Dec. 29, 2024, 8:00 AM), https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/41207867/state-group-5-college-football-playoff-2024.

[9] Jemison, supra note 5.

[10] Associated Press, AAC Sets Minimum for Schools to Share Revenue With Athletes, ESPN (Mar. 12, 2025, 7:49 PM), https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/44226335/aac-sets-minimum-schools-share-revenue-athletes.

[11] Jemison, supra note 5.

[12] Eddie Pells, College Athletes Are Getting Paid and Fans Are Starting to See a Growing Share of the Bill, Associated Press (Nov. 4, 2024), https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2024/college-athletes-are-getting-paid-and-fans-are-starting-to-see-a-growing-share-of-the-bill/.

[13] Id.

[14] Id.

[15] Id.

[16] Hale, supra note 8.

[17] Moneyball (Columbia Pictures 2011).

[18] Id.