Blog Post | 114 KY. L. J. ONLINE | October 17, 2025
Is this the S.T.A.R.T. of the End? A Reflection on the Looming Deadline of the Last Remaining Nuclear Arms Agreement between the United States and Russia.
By: Harper Johnson, Staff Editor, Vol. 114
Since the dawn of nuclear weapons, there has been a nuclear security dilemma—when one state creates nuclear weapons to protect itself from other nuclear powers, thereby diminishing overall nuclear security.[1] Thus, there has also been an international interest in nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament.[2] A current international treaty between the United States and Russia limiting nuclear weapons is set to expire in February of 2026.[3] Considering this deadline and the current state of nuclear relations between the United States and Russia, there is cause for concern.
Following the end of World War II and the Cold War, new Soviet Union leadership encouraged advancements in international nuclear arms agreements with the United States.[4] In 1987, United States President Ronald Reagan and the General Secretary of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev ratified the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), a first-of-its-kind treaty dismantling intermediate-range nuclear missiles.[5] Only four years later, United States President George W. Bush and Gorbachev ratified the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I),[6] the first treaty requiring the “reduction[] of strategic nuclear weapons.”[7] Following the expiration of START I in 2009,[8] the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) went into effect between the United States and Russia.[9] New START placed verifiable limits on nuclear weapon ownership by the United States and Russia in an attempt to improve international security and transparency.[10] Originally set to expire in February of 2021, both states agreed to a five year extension.[11] That extension is set to end February of 2026.[12] Unfortunately, the likelihood of a new arms agreement is dwindling as relations between the United States and Russia become increasingly strained largely due to Russian attacks on Ukraine beginning in 2022.[13]
Since the beginning of the Trump II Administration, the attacks on Ukraine by Russia have only escalated,[14] further harming international relations and security.[15] While Trump has historically claimed to have a strong relation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in recent months Trump has voiced his disappointment in Putin’s continued attacks on Ukraine.[16] The lack of communication between Russia and the United States is becoming particularly dangerous as Russia becomes increasingly unreliable and aggressive.[17] Further, while Putin has previously emphasized the importance of nuclear arms agreements,[18] the United States has found Russia to be in violation of New START for failing to allow for verification of Russia’s nuclear arms, a core tenant of the treaty.[19] With tensions running high between the two leaders, the looming expiration date of New START is increasingly worrisome.
With no nuclear arms treaty in sight, is a revival of the Cold War Era in the future? Without New START, the United States’ knowledge of Russian nuclear arms will become far more limited.[20] This lack of transparency—a hallmark of the Cold War—may very well result in a new arms race and the insurgence of another nuclear security dilemma due to nuclear weapon proliferation.[21]
While nonproliferation and disarmament can be daunting, many international players have already invested in a variety of methods to eliminate the creation, spread, and use of nuclear arms.[22] The United States and Russia could emphasize their compliance with existing international agreements in place to promote nonproliferation. Both the United States and Russia, and several other nuclear and non-nuclear powers, have ratified the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).[23] However, enforcing compliance of the NPT has been difficult and as a result disarmament goals have not been met by the United States or Russia.[24] As international agreements lack enforcement power, many states with nuclear powers have taken domestic efforts to control and deter the proliferation of nuclear weapons in an attempt to avoid a nuclear security dilemma.[25] In the United States, the Bureau of Arms Control and Nonproliferation employs a variety of methods to encourage nuclear safety including international diplomacy, domestic security and verification, and nonproliferation efforts.[26] However, with only domestic limitations, many states may feel pressure to improve their security by creating more nuclear weapons rather than investing in methods of controlling nuclear proliferation: this will ultimately result in a nuclear security dilemma and or an arms race, further harming international security.[27]
A final potential outcome is based on the theory of Mutual Assured Destruction (or MAD).[28] MAD is the theory that “the outcome [of using nuclear weapons] would be so dreadful that both sides [will] be deterred from starting a nuclear war or even taking actions that might lead to it.”[29] Thus, while there may not be an international agreement in place to monitor the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the United States and Russia (and other states developing their nuclear arsenals) may simply continue to work towards nonproliferation and disarmament—or at least not use the nuclear weapons being created—out of fear of the repercussion of beginning a nuclear war.[30] While this may seem to be a strong option, it is especially dangerous as each state will be acting under the guise of protecting their own self-interest rather than cooperating to reach a more secure form of disarmament.
The upcoming deadline of the last remaining nuclear agreement between the United States and Russia is concerning. The current relation between the leaders of the United States and Russia do not inspire confidence that a new international agreement will be created. Without the creation of a new international agreement, states will be left to their own nuclear devices. With this in mind, it is quite possible that the only nuclear weapons deterrent, following the February 2026 expiration date of New START, is the fear of catastrophic loss and mutual assured destruction.
[1] John Lewis Gaddis, The Cold War 27 (2005).
[2] See e.g., The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), 1968, Off. of The Historian, https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/npt (last visited Sept. 23, 2025) (The NPT is an international agreement created with the intent of improving international security related to nuclear technology.).
[3] New START Treaty, U.S. Dep’t of State, https://www.state.gov/new-start-treaty (last visited Sept. 23, 2025).
[4] Gaddis, supra note 1, at 229–30. Russian General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev even went as far as to state his desire of “ridding the world of nuclear weapons.” Id. at 230.
[5] Id. at 231–32. The purpose of the INF was to eliminate an entire category of nuclear weapons, and it resulted in the destruction of over 2,500 ballistic missiles between the United States and Russia. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty at a Glance, Arms Control Ass’n (Aug. 2019), https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-inf-treaty-glance.
[6] Gaddis, supra note 1, at 255.
[7] START I was instrumental in creating the foundation for nuclear arms reduction which can be seen as both states continued to limit their arsenals beyond that which was required by the agreement. START I at a Glance, Arms Control Ass’n (July 2022), https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/start-i-glance.
[8] Id.
[9] U.S. Dep’t of State, supra note 3.
[10] Id. (“The treaty contains detailed procedures for the implementation and verification of the central limits [of the treaty].”).
[11] Id.
[12] Id.
[13] Yuras Karmanau, Jim Heintz, Vladimir Isachenkov & Dasha Litvinova, Russia Invades Ukraine on Multiple Fronts in ‘Brutal Act of War,’ PBS News (Feb. 24, 2022, 8:27 PM EDT), https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-invades-ukraine-on-multiple-fronts-in-brutal-act-of-war.
[14] Jane Lytvynenko, Ming Li & Emma Brown, These Charts Show How Putin is Defying Trump by Escalating Airstrikes on Ukraine, Wall St. J. (Sept. 13, 2025, 11:00 AM ET), https://www.wsj.com/world/these-charts-show-how-putin-is-defying-trump-by-escalating-airstrikes-on-ukraine-f7eee47b?mod=world_lead_story.
[15] Thomas Grove & Jane Lytvynenko, Russia Intensifies Strikes in Ukraine, Defying Trump’s Shifting Deadlines for Peace, Wall St. J. (Sept. 1, 2025, 2:08 PM ET), https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-intensifies-strikes-in-ukraine-defying-trumps-shifting-deadlines-for-peace-af9746c9?mod=Searchresults&pos=3&page=1; see Morning Edition, Has the Relationship Between President Trump and Russia’s Putin Gone Cold?, NPR, at 01:40–01:59 (July 11, 2025, 4:50 AM EDT), https://www.npr.org/2025/07/11/nx-s1-5463789/has-the-relationship-between-president-trump-and-russias-putin-gone-cold.
[16] Alexandra Hutzler, Trump and Putin’s Changing Relationship to Take Center Stage in Alaska, ABC News (Aug. 15, 2025, 5:12 AM ET), https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-putins-changing-relationship-center-stage-alaska/story?id=124621032.
[17] Ruth Comerford, Russia Will Expand Aggression Beyond Ukraine If Not Stopped, Zelensky Warns, BBC (Sept. 24, 2025), https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yg921rjrko.
[18] Michael R. Gordon, Putin Dangles Prospect of Renewed Nuclear Talks Ahead of Trump Summit, Wall St. J. (Aug. 16, 2025, 4:58 PM), https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-putin-alaska-summit/card/putin-dangles-the-prospect-of-renewed-nuclear-talks-ahead-of-trump-summit-iFxP5vKOEpwu6ljWDidY?mod=Searchresults&pos=4&page=1.
[19] After months of dodging verification efforts, in violation of New START, Russian president Vladimir Putin suspended Russia’s involvement in New START. Heather Williams, Russia Suspends New START and Increases Nuclear Risks, CSIS (Feb. 23, 2023), https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-suspends-new-start-and-increases-nuclear-risks.
[20] Id.
[21] Gaddis, supra note 1, at 262–63; Shannon Bugos, Understanding the Dispute Over New START, Arms Control Ass’n (Apr. 2023), https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2023-04/news/understanding-dispute-over-new-start#:~:text=“Whatever%20insulation%20there%20was%20between,for%20War%20on%20the%20Rocks.
[22] See, e.g., Off. of The Historian, supra note 2.
[23] The NPT is aimed at limiting the spread of the new technology that allowed for the creation of nuclear weapons and while it has not entirely prevented the proliferation of nuclear arms nor resulted in complete nuclear disarmament, it has encouraged international cooperation between states with nuclear power and highlighted the danger of uncontrolled nuclear arms. Id.
[24] Not surprisingly, while the United States and Russia are ratifiers of the NPT, they have been unsuccessful in the disarmament of their own nuclear stockpiles. NGO Statement for the 3rd Preparatory Meeting for the 2026 NPT Review Conference, Arms Control Ass’n (Apr. 30, 2025), https://www.armscontrol.org/ngo-statement-3rd-prepcom-2025. Nevertheless, in April and May of 2026 (following the expiration of New START in February), the states will have another opportunity to reach a quantifiable nuclear arms agreement to support nonproliferation and disarmament. Overview, United Nations, https://meetings.unoda.org/npt-revcon/treaty-on-the-non-proliferation-of-nuclear-weapons-eleventh-review-conference-2026 (last visited Sept. 25, 2025); U.S. Dep’t of State, supra note 3.
[25] See, e.g., The UK’s Nuclear Deterrent: What You Need to Know, Gov.UK, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-nuclear-deterrence-factsheet/uk-nuclear-deterrence-what-you-need-to-know (last visited Sept. 25, 2025) (The United Kingdom’s commitment to maintaining the least amount of nuclear weapons necessary to ensure domestic safety.).
[26] About Us—Bureau of Arms Control and Nonproliferation, U.S. Dep’t of State, https://www.state.gov/about-us-bureau-of-arms-control-and-nonproliferation/ (last visited Sept. 25, 2025).
[27] Gaddis, supra note 1, at 27.
[28] Robert Jervis, Mutual Assured Destruction, 133 foreign Pol’y 40, 40 (2002).
[29] Id.
[30] Putin has even declared his willingness to follow the terms of New START for another year after the February 2026 expiration date and has encouraged the United States to do the same. Vladimir Isachenkov, Putin Says Russia Is Willing to Abide by Nuclear Arms Deal with the US for 1 Year After It Expires, AP (Sept. 30, 2025, 2:18 PM EDT), https://apnews.com/article/russia-us-nuclear-treaty-limits-4f49d09af7ce4a14dd54b9a0021c6a7c.